Off I am glad to bring in errant shots right here friend of the show he's been -- for a couple years on Tuesdays at this time talking about. The NFL and represented football outsiders dot com of course and -- is back with me today hire him. Heyman. And I'm not -- -- asks -- was -- offseason my opted in was pretty good. It was nice to not have to write a book like two weeks yes your season is probably pretty busy when is your downtime. February. -- it that's it and. Some time in. Kind of late July after the -- done but not really this year. Well I'm hopeful. And I think -- even clued me in a little bit to this. Today I'm hopeful that this year we can talk about. You know a good team around here a lot of fans are hopeful. And your opinion how hopeful that they they. Well when we get the numbers -- our projection system they came out. Buying what the bills are selling for this year. Now I think that when we write that chapter in the book and football outsiders almanac 2012 I think we were a little hesitant because we've sort of been roped in by the bills before. Last year being a prime example -- you remember -- pump station saying. This team it was jet -- mr. real happily through this season and and they just collapsed. And we don't -- fond of that trap again. But the projection system came out really liked what they did this offseason. The best possible thing you can do for your team other than having a star quarterback just -- start pass rusher. And when you put that together with the talent they have coming back. On defense like Kyle Williams that they've got a really good mix of youngsters and in their prime defense of talent not a lot of older guys. He really looks like that the defense really looks primed for an improvement it's not just a lot of talk. Let me hear you talk about Mario Williams and even Mark Anderson if you care to as far as being stars goes would you call them. Magical one of them a star Williams and not the other heard just what's the what's the. Mark Anderson is Mark Anderson is not a star in the book we Collins Chris Bosh of the bills. You -- there. You don't yet have a great year as a rookie. And that was -- 67 years ago hit a great year last year for delinquent. He really is all he doesn't pass rush so he's not a complete player in the past structure that's all he can. Williams is much more complete player William question. Stop -- Williams can drop back in zone blitzes if you needed to. He's a more complete player but by having teams concentrating on Williams being on one side that should free up Anderson on the other side. Two to do it that. They're shots along here the football outsiders almanac for 2012. Is on sale football outsiders dot com you can buy at her computer. For 1250 or by the printed version for 2295. Not to -- I don't think I'm giving away what is a book of hundreds of pages by saying one thing. But I'll tell -- is one thing anyway. When football outsiders. Raided all the teams in the league in terms of percentage chance to make the playoffs the bills came in. A very promising seventh place in the whole league -- That is correct. And that's the changes you're talking about and the schedule I presume what else maybe. You out the schedule of the large part that the entire AFC east this year has not easy schedule by our our. Accounting. The AFC south has stepped loaded down divisions Houston -- good team but may not these could it was last year because offensive line issues. Tendencies OK but they did he used to rookie quarterback in the Jacksonville rebuilding. Yes he left we -- know how bad that is except for Tampa to go to our numbers believe this particular kind of decline. -- to. I'm not sure I agree that our numbers the -- is politically to decline a locked but it's pretty clear they're going to decline some. Because teams don't go from six to thirteen wins without. Falling back in the victory. So when you put all those teams on the schedule it really makes the patriots. The likely favorite for the best record in the league it. Make the bills' playoff contenders it makes the jets' playoff contenders and it makes Miami. Not in line for the number one pick in the draft. And I don't want to abandon this but I. Wanna go back and talk about pass rush a little bit I should -- this question before bringing up the playoff odds -- But interesting that last year. I believe it was football outsiders numbers. That showed Green Bay. With the team that applied the least amount a pass pressure in the league. And also as Gregg Easterbrook points out today ESPN and Jared Allen for Minnesota led the league in sacks. In Minnesota won three games is that at the two things together if they should be Koppel is that a really strange year for that. That is the really strange hearing here's the reason why. Based on. I think that the that the static -- Green -- putting on the least amount of pressure is probably just facts that just exactly perhaps. For Green Bay is that where they were -- hold on and we'll look it up yes they work. We actually when you look at actually putting pressure on directly 31 -- half. But sorry that's. -- -- was 31 the defense was. Org -- higher all right there you go by. Here's the thing about that Green Bay overcame a poor defense which is the best offense one of the best up and has an NFL history. The Packers were one of the most. One dimensional teams in the history of football. They passed the ball that's what they did they were not good running. They were not good -- pass defense they were not good run defense. And they were mediocre special -- they didn't pass and they did it better than pretty much anybody has ever done it in the history of the game. And that was able they were able to overcome the lack of -- pressure on defense because of that. At the -- so one thing we did with our numbers is that we split things up per I'm -- -- a look at how eighteen -- on defense. When they put -- pressure on. But then also how they did on defense if we only look at actual passes and seek out facts and scramble. Okay and the team that was the worst on defense. Even when they put pressure on. If you take up the second -- doubles with Minnesota. The secondary. Was horrible. Subject Karen Allen Jared Allen didn't get to the quarterback. They were in trouble because even if -- pressured the quarterback. Is one of the got a -- thought you could. Complete action against minnesotans. So overall pass pressure is still important -- Elvis. We have buffalo last year they were a 27 to adjust to factory. Which is a fact per pass play just to the situation and opponent. And they were 31 in the percentage of pat plays where we looked at them and putting pressure Ron according torque in -- So. You know -- pressure should be a big help for. Even. Even as lowly is they word it's still distorted by their having ten sacks in one game. With their season total was that it was nineteen or number like it was such a low number one. -- -- had a -- okay right the ten in one game and then eighteen in the other fifteen games last year. Errant shots as my guest okay Aaron week I wanted it Bulldog who was in here wanted it right even before the schedule came out. If the bills are to take a step forward the jets are the team and focus the team ahead of them. Not a great team but one that's beaten them. And there it is weak one bills -- jets all the coverage about the jets I know like were there are facing our reckon our our -- -- they're being played as one at least played up as one. I want to ask you about this trade to -- that they made but just overall out of the bills compare with the jets -- you see it. We have built projected government dementia. But we have the jets projected in the book they come out kinda tied with Baltimore at the most likely -- to -- the second wildcard spot. I don't know from changes after you know when we do updated projections next week on football outsiders dot com which is looking to be ahead. But I would think that actually you don't need to -- the jets to make the playoffs because of the way the schedule works like I said really if you think about last. Here when three AFC north teams made the playoffs. It's very possible for the same thing to happen this year with the AFC east because the whole division has very easy schedule. The teams that both the captain bill we're really really need to pass. Is whoever doesn't win the western whoever doesn't win the north. Well that's interesting and that the north last year Pittsburgh since he Baltimore. They had the same schedule denied they had the NFC west in the AFC south. Yeah I think they had a pretty good to have both of the -- I don't know if they're both conferences the same the one -- saying yapping at the same exact -- But he did they did get the -- while. The east -- the west in the AFC so the north would have had the -- Well that's it yeah. Happened last year it you think it's very reasonable to believe that can happen again from the jets defense is really cut OK as much of a circuit and their offenses right now. That defense is still really give it much better than it looked according to official yardage totals last year. Because. You know they have turnovers and strong on it you know they put a tough schedule opposing offenses had -- Tom Brady twice. That defense is still one of the best defense recently. -- not -- best defense. -- shots as my guest here on WG our football outsiders dot com. Erin what do you like more Fitzpatrick -- Sanchez. That Patrick I've got to admit to not being and very big and provider of by. Normally when you hear the phrase hidden injury. You have to kind of shake your head of that excuse a lot of the time but if it is true. But he really did have an injury last year then number one the league needs to find the bills address. Could they broke the rules and report. And sue the mean that offense is likely to be a lot better this year because that was a top -- offense by our numbers for the first half of the season. The reason why it Patrick foul that the -- finally figured out his game on film the bills may be in trouble and they may be seven in battery may. But if he really is what you -- in the first half of the season and that those trips are healthy. In this -- can be very very good and says. You know we we had research before the show that the most quarterback that the time that they improved was generally the second season in the fourth season. You know people look Eli Manning may be an example to quarterback didn't really get into the end of the sport here. But I want to read did that researcher couple weeks ago and it. Doesn't seem to apply if you look at a larger sample. He really just is between your wanting your achieved record back to completely otherwise everything. Very gradual. So there's really no reason to believe that tension is gonna take any kind of a weak this year and unless he does take some kind of believe he's just not he's not good enough to be in -- starter. Real quick because the linemen don't. Move the meter as they say but what what did you find out last night about Jason Smith and the rams and whether or not this was a good move for the jets. I mean it was you check our track we'll take your trash doesn't mean it was a I don't quite know what the jets did it because. Because they've -- -- to take on the salary for Jason Smith and it's not like they're gonna probably resign him after the speaker but I can't imagine either of those guys. You know -- -- -- what went on your team at least doesn't have the sorry that's the at a the mostly meaningless trade. That's we're talking offensive line bills and jets week one okay the the rookies the bills have. Six games coming up this year against teams that right now have rookies or Jake Locker. As their starting quarterbacks basically guys who have not played in the league. Where are US -- in terms of just what to expect from rookies is it. Is it more true than it used to be that rookies can start into a good job. It does seem to be more true that being said I do not think anybody should expect guys to go out and throw like Cam Newton did last year for 4000 yards with. Fourteen rushing touchdown. A -- and they had the best quarterback season by any quarterback since the merger. Possibly the best all time although until they've had a great cook this. Any tangles. Tees yet her rookie quarterback. And you can't expect that that good luck is as good as -- is you can't expect them to copy that you can't expect them into this world he did. But can you expect them to do better than rookie quarterback did 1011 years ago I think that you probably can't. Remember though the Philippines tend to bring rookie quarterbacks along with a heavy dose of the run now from out. And that is going to be a bit of a problem in Indianapolis the immediate problem in Washington. An immediate problem in Miami Tennessee should be able to do that for locker Seattle will definitely be able to do that Wilson. And completely should be able to do that for wheat and -- Trent Richardson. Term -- Jackson any opinion. Yes surprisingly. Average last -- You actually -- I think he may have worked himself into position as a guy is gonna be up pretty reasonable back open this week for a long time he is not a starting quality quarterback. But he seems to have worked himself between good position. Where he's a reasonable backup it probably can be the next few years like Jeff -- kind of. All right there and I look forward to more conversations with view the almanac is on sale can you give everybody what you would. -- how would you have them buy it. 600 pages. All the NFL teams are covered fantasy football projections college football. Football outsiders dot com we still both the PDF version 1250 in the books for 2295. You can also -- the printed book at Amazon and of course it will say nice things about the Buffalo Bills. So that you may actually want applied this year. Yes not that we look at this any other way but objectively but. That's in there just in case that appeals to you ought to read. Mean things about Miami Dolphins front off but the book pretty good thank you very nice to catch up with you are able hockey well when he's -- for sure. Errant shots football outsiders dot com. I'm having a good day I needed it yesterday I was terrible and having a good day.
